The title here says it all, so let’s get going.

SF - Paul Harris:
2007-2008 Key Stats: 36.1 MPG, 14.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.7 SPG

2007-08 Recap:
TFG: Harris started just one game in 2006-07, but his athleticism had fans foaming at the mouth at the idea of him logging big minutes. The Orange faithful got what they wanted in 2007-08, as Harris led the team in minutes per contest with 36.1, good for third in the Big East. Harris also got to the free throw line a lot. A whole lot. In fact, his 237 attempts not only led the league, but no player since Hakim Warrick in 2004-05 made more trips to the line than Harris in one season (Hak had 310 that year). Paul also added an improved shooting touch beyond the arc to his repertoire, going 11-34 last season compared to an ugly 5% (1-20) in his freshman campaign. While I don’t see him being an everyday three point threat like Devendorf, Rautins and Flynn are, Harris now has one more dimension to his game to use in keeping defenders honest.

After the ACL injuries, Harris was forced over from the three to the two spot, though it didn’t change his style of play all that much. Just ask Villanova’s Dante Cunningham. A lockdown defender to boot, Harris tallied 1.7 steals per game, including a six-game span in conference play where he tallied 18 swipes. My biggest knock on Harris is his ball control, which was epitomized by his crushing gaffe against Pittsburgh in March. As good as he is on defense, he displayed an alarming propensity to cough the ball up himself. He turned the ball over more than anyone in the Big East except for Eugene Harvey of Seton Hall, but Harris was just one behind.

2008-09 Outlook: Harris causes more matchup problems for opponents than just about any player I’ve seen. You can’t put a forward on him because he’ll blow right by him to the rack, and 230 pounds of Paul is a lot for a guard to handle. Harris, along with Devendorf and Flynn, make for a three-headed monster of scoring threats who are capable of slashing all the way from the three-point line to the basket. As mentioned above, the biggest key for Harris this season will be for him to cut down on his turnovers. You’re bound to lose the ball once in a while when you drive through traffic as much as Harris does, but there were 16 games last season where he committed at least four turnovers, which to me suggests that he didn’t make a concerted effort to take better care of the ball as the season wore on.

I don’t think anyone’s worried about Harris slipping on offense. If anything, the return of Rautins and Devendorf should take some attention away from Harris, allowing him to be even more of a force. As for his rebounding ability, the Big East’s cast of imposing forwards and centers could spell trouble for his rebounding numbers if he isn’t proactive on the glass again.

As a side note, Harris cut his body fat percentage from 6.5% to 5.5% this offseason. Paul needs to cut his body fat like John Daly needs another drink, but I thought I’d point it out anyway.

When He’s Not On The Court: It’s not often that we come across a player with such a unique build as Harris, nor did we see Paul take to the bench very often last season, so this is a tougher nut to crack. With some easier opponents on tap in the first few weeks of the schedule, freshman Kris Joseph should get some minutes to establish his role. If this part of the puzzle remains unsolved, Boeheim may want to go big with Rick Jackson (which would bump Ongenaet to the 3) or, if the team needs to shoot itself back into the game, Andy Rautins or Mookie Jones.

LVO: Paul Harris can do it all.  Don’t believe me?  Check out this thread from last year.  I really loved seeing his progression last season.  His midrange game is much improved, giving him another option when breaking down defenders.  I really like the matchup problems that teams will be faced with when dealing with Syracuse.  A healthy Devo means that there will be 3 players capable of breaking down defenders one on one in the man to man and that will put pressure on any defense.  The spacing that this creates will also give AO plently of room to roam in the paint and open up three point shooting.

TFG and I really don’t have much deviation on the statline for Paul.  I think he will pretty much roll out the same scoring as last season, but probably get a few more minutes because, really, JB still loves his starters.  I agree with TFG that the biggest improvement I want to see out of Paul is limiting his turnovers and his overall decision making.  We were really just one more win away from qualifying for the tourney last year and the Pitt game epitomized the struggles that Paul had with ball security.  I also thought that he tends to hang on to the rock at the end of ball games instead of finding more reliable foul shooters.   I expect him to improve his overall in-game awareness this season.

2008-09 Stat Predictions:
TFG: 30 MPG, 16.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.0 SPG

LVO: 34 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 8.0 RPG,  2.0 SPG

PF - Kristof Ongenaet:
2007-2008 Key Stats: 19.2 MPG, 4.5 PPG, 4.5 Reb, 51.5 FG%.

2007-08 Recap:
LVO: Kristof Ongenaet joined the Syracuse Orange last year as a rare junior college transfer.  The Belgium native played sparingly early in the season, but the injuries to Eric Devendorf and suspension of Scoop Jardine opened the door to increased playing time.    By season’s end, KO had started 15 games and was a major contributor, averaging better than 6 points and almost 6 rebounds a game in those 15 games versus 4.5 pts/4.5 reb overall.  Gone was the November deer in the head lights look of a new comer, replaced by a gritty determined player with a nifty penchant for converting reverse layups in traffic by season’s end.  In the heat of the Big East battles, Ongenaet produced some of his best games.  He managed to score a double-double of 10 points and 11 rebounds against Seton Hall.  KO earned the fans’ respect with his grinding, hustling, floor-burn style and aggressive defense.  A direct 180 degree opposite of the man who’s spot he will replace in the lineup - the enigmatic Donte Greene.

2008-09 Outlook: The starting four spot is all but assured as the season opens.  Last season, KO was asked to do a little bit of everything.  This year Kristof should return to a more defined role of rebounder and energy guy.  While his overall minutes played should equal last season’s numbers, it is highly likely that his numbers won’t approach the 38 minute max he played against Georgetown last season.  Still this does not diminish the importance of KO’s role.  He will still be asked to do the little things, scrap for loose balls, man the backside of the zone, rebound with abandon and clean up with second chance points on the offensive end.  While no one expects major offensive numbers, KO has three point range that could open things up for the slashing of Devo, Flynn and PH.  Maintaining proper spacing, floor balance and experience will be valued as the team looks to reverse two years of NCAA futility.  His presence will lesson the pressures of talented froshes Kris Joseph and Mookie Jones and give this duo time to develop.  Based on last season’s performance, one should expect a slight uptick in overall numbers of minutes, points and rebounds.

When He’s Not On The Court: There are a number of possible scenarios when Kristof heads to the bench.  JB could choose to go big and insert Rick Jackson.  Most likely we will see one of the freshman on the floor in his spot.  In the early practices, Mookie Jones was working more with the guards, so the prevailing thought here is that Kris Joseph is inline to gobble up some of these minutes and could possibly supplant KO in the starting lineup if he really develops.  But that may be highly unlikely given past history, last year notwithstanding.  Boeheim could also choose to go small and shift Paul Harris to the four although one would suspect that this type of scenario would present all sorts of problems in the zone as length would really be an issue.  It would not be surprising to see our Hall of Fame coach revert to his favorite 8 man rotation once Big East play begins and that will just about guarantee KO major minutes.

TFG: Ongenaet wasn’t exactly a blue-chip recruit; His courtship was necessitated when Arinze Onuaku had surgery to repair his left knee. In case you haven’t heard this theory elsewhere, here are a few signs:

1. He didn’t commit until May of 2007, a time usually reserved for top talent who can make even the most hard-nosed recruiters sweat it out for their services. Such players are not found in the JC ranks.
2. The Orange had the #2 power forward recruit in the country coming to campus in Donte Greene, plus another body for the back of the zone in Rick Jackson
3. KO would only be around for two years as a JUCO transfer, and it’s uncommon for such players to be very impactful for a program as reputable as Syracuse.

Going into the 2007-08 season, Ongenaet looked like merely an insurance policy in case AO couldn’t return to form or if someone else went down. Sure enough, to bastardize an oft-quoted phrase, the best-laid plans of mice and hungry relatives of backup guards often go awry. While 4.5 and 4.5 isn’t exactly what you look for out of a starter, just imagine where this team would have been without Ongenaet last season. Not bad at all for a last-minute find.

With this team’s scoring potential, all Boeheim will ask of KO this year is to provide some consistent rebounding and size on the defensive end, though he’s bound to pick up some garbage points around the rim. I doubt we’ll see him set up around the perimeter on offense, mostly because I think opposing defenses will devote more attention to Onuaku than they did last year. His size is also favorable for setting screens to get his teammates open.

I’m going to disagree with your implying that the freshmen will be the preferred subs for Ongenaet. With the exception of highly-touted recruits like Flynn, Greene and Anthony, Boeheim favors experience over youth when given the choice. Should he regress, I’d actually look for Jackson to take more of his minutes than either freshman.

2008-09 Stat Predictions:
LVO: 22 MPG  5.2 PPG, 5.5 Reb, 53 FG%
TFG: 25 MPG, 6.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 58 FG%, 1.8 SPG

C - Arinze Onuaku:
2007-2008 Key Stats: 30.6 MPG, 12.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 62.8 FG%, 44.5 FT%, down to 7.5% body fat

2007-08 Recap:
TFG: Onuaku had surgery to repair his left knee after his freshman season, forcing him to take a redshirt in 2006-07. He spent the year bulking up and went on to enjoy one of the biggest breakout seasons in the conference, finishing second in the conference in FG% to Randall Hanke of Providence. Onuaku’s broad frame allowed him to muscle his way by forwards and centers for close buckets. His build also was a factor in him snagging 8.1 rebounds per game, which ranked sixth in the conference. He performed great against lesser counterparts, but I think he lost focus at times against some of the Big East’s top big men like Hasheem Thabeet, Roy Hibbert and Kentrell Gransberry.  AO was one of many players whose workload increased after the ACL injuries to Devendorf and Rautins set in, as he averaged 30 minutes per game. I think fatigue brought on by playing so many minutes combined with his size to make him slow getting up and down the court.

2008-09 Outlook: Reports are that AO looks slimmer, but he actually put on 20 pounds in reducing his body fat. With quick-footed players like Harris, Flynn and Devendorf, Onuaku needs to be able to keep up on offense, but his improved conditioning should allay concerns and enable to him to be even more dominant in the low post. The biggest need for improvement out of Onuaku is from the free throw department. He’s going to take a lot of contact, which means he’ll get to the line very often, and he has to convert those chances, pure and simple. 44.5%, only slightly better than Ben Wallace’s career average at the pro level, is inexcusable. He doesn’t have to be Steve Nash from the line, but I can deal with something in the neighborhood of 55%. Cutting down on fouls while staying physical on defense will also be a point of focus for AO. He won’t be able to assert himself as an offensive force if he has to go to the bench with two fouls less than five minutes into games.

When He’s Not On The Court: Rick Jackson will fill in for Onuaku as well as Kristof Ongenaet. If Kris Joseph proves himself capable, he could see some time down low as well. Some of Boeheim’s quotes have led me to believe that Sean Williams is still years away from contributing, if he will at all in his career. AO is the most consistent option in the paint, so look for him to continue to shoulder a sizable load of minutes, but Ongenaet, Jackson, Harris and Kris Joseph are each big enough to play in the back of the zone. That’s a lot of fouls to give, so against more physical opponents, there could be a lot of shuffling with the Orange’s big bodies.

LVO: Arinze Onuaku was such an unknown quantity heading into last season.  He looked like a rebounding beast in his limited time on the floor as a freshman.  Coming back from the surgery, no one really knew what to expect offensively.  Well to me, Arinze was probably the most pleasant surprise to emerge from last season’s long list of unknowns.  He outplayed or played to a standoff more established players like Kentrell Gransbury, Roy Hibbert and Hasheem Thabeet.  Having a logged a ton of minutes and having a raw freshman for a backup may have limited his aggressiveness.  I fully expect AO to log about 5 minutes a game less than last year but be more productive in those minutes.  Rick Jackson looks much better behind him as well and that will just allow AO to play with more abandon.

One place I think we all would love to see improvement out of Arinze is at the charity stripe.  I believe he will continue to shoot a high FG percentage, much like we saw in the exhibition opener, but he has to do better from the line than last year’s 73 for 164, 44.5%.  If he raises that number to match his FG percentage, look out!  Otherwise, teams that are deep in the frontcourt are going to employ the KO-the-AO strategy and see if he can make his free throws.

2008-09 Stat Predictions:
TFG: 29 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG

LVO: 25 MPG, 15.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 65% FG, 55% FT

 

This entry was posted on Monday, November 10th, 2008 at 8:35 pm by Brian G. . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Tags: basketball, Preview