SU vs. Florida – Orange and Blue and CBE, Too!
After three home contests, the Orange and Gators leave their comfy campus confines for Kansas City, Missouri, to take part in the final rounds of the de facto tournament known as the CBE Classic. SU and Florida will be joined by the Kansas Jayhawks and Washington Huskies; in all, three of the last six NCAA Tournament champions take to the court, with the Jayhawks holding a tremendous home court advantage, as Lawrence is an hour’s drive away.
In the first semifinal, Syracuse will face Florida, its first ranked opponent of the year. After coasting through its first two games, Florida hit something of a road block against Southern Utah last Thursday. The Gators shot a hideous 1-16 from three point range* after sinking 16 of 34 tries against Bradley one game prior, but were able to overcome the cold effor to pull off a 64-50 victory thanks to a sticky defense that forced 21 turnovers. If that defense shows up again, it could be a troubling night for the Orange.
*A quick note about that three pointer – it came with less than one minute left in the game and extended the Gators’ streak of consecutive games with at least one three pointer to 546. Florida last went without a three on January 11, 1992, against Kentucky. That deserves a two-syllable “day-umn.”
SU holds a tremendous edge in rebounding going into Monday night’s matchup. Compared to Florida’s 34.2 rebounds per game, the Orange post 42.3 per game. On top of that, sophomore standout Nick Calathes leads the team in boards with just six per game, whereas SU has three players averaging at least that many. What this means is that AO should continue his season going more or less unchallenged by opposing big men, so look for another solid night from SU’s five spot with Arinze again using his size to muscle inward for high-percentage shots.
At the four, Ongenaet will likely draw junior Dan Werner, and this a matchup where I actually like Kristof’s chances, despite my clamoring for Rick Jackson to supplant him at this spot. Werner is a 6′8″ 230-pound forward with some shooting range, having hit 6 of 16 three point attempts this year, so Ongenaet’s experience playing D on the wing should come in handy. Kris Joseph could do as good a job or even better, but imagining Jackson out there is not something I could stomach. I’ll side with experience here.
Much has been mentioned of the recent success ‘Cuse has enjoyed due to a switch to man-to-man defense, and throwing man-to-man at the Gators might not be a bad idea, given their preference to shoot the long ball. Consider this, though: early in the second half of Florida’s game against Bradley, the Braves used a 1-3-1 and forced three turnovers to go on a 10-1 run. I still think we’ll see a good amount of man-to-man, but if Syracuse gets into a funk like it did in the first half of the Richmond game, the 1-3-1 could throw the Gators of their comfort zone once again and allow SU to get back into the swing of things.
The talk around Gainesville is that Florida will live and die by the three, not unlike the Orange did last season. It’s a very good thing that SU has used its first few games to refine its man-to-man set, because otherwise this game could turn into a classic case of an undersized team using a hot shooting night beyond the arc to beat the Orange’s zone. A team could very well do the same thing against a man defense, but the chances are much lower. SU has an opportunity to win four in a row for the first time since a stretch last season from December 22 thru January 5, and a win away from home against a ranked team would do wonders for this team’s confidence.
