The Bearcats are fighting for their NCAA tournament lives; SU needs to win two of its last three to clinch a first-round bye at the Big East Tournament. It’s no secret who needs a win more on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean this isn’t an important game for SU, which hasn’t won consecutive games in nearly two months.

Last season, Deonta Vaughn lit the ‘Cuse up for 29 points in a 74-66 win, and he’ll be Cincinnati’s top scoring threat again. The Bearcats don’t have a lot of other dependable scoring options, so even if Flynn can’t contain him, the Orange should be ok. With that in mind, I think it’s fair to say that SU would stand to gain plenty by turning this game into a track meet. Cincinnati is one of the lower-scoring teams in the conference, the Orange is well-rested having not played since Tuesday, and concerns of tired legs for a Sunday-Tuesday turnaround would be limited by looking at the calendar and seeing a home game against Rutgers on the horizon. Such a strategy doesn’t work against teams like Providence and Villanova who have shooters who can stay with the Orange, but I can’t say the same thing about the Bearcats.

Back to the matchups, SU has the on-paper advantage at every position. Eric Devendorf is on one of his extended scoring tears, so Larry Davis is going to have his work cut out for him. The Bearcats’ bigs are either inexperienced or undersized, depending on if you’re looking at the 4 or the 5 spot.

Paul Harris has been due for a big game for what feel s like several weeks, and I think it would benefit the whole team to set up a few extra plays for PH and get his confidence up as the team gets ready for postseason action. Seeing Paul outrebound everyone on St. John’s Tuesday night reminded me of how successful this team can be when Harris is in the mix. Now he just needs to straighten out his offensive game and he’ll have a great opportunity as Cincy wing Mike Williams is dealing with a sore knee, something the Orange know a little bit about.

The next biggest question mark is Arinze Onuaku. Going against unseasoned starter Steve Toyloy down low should be a field day. The rebounds will come, but offensively, will we see him get by on brute strength alone, muscling his way towards the basket or will we see a nice array of post moves to complement? Or maybe a combination?

If SU pushes it like they should, I see a comfortable 85-73 victory. The slower SU plays, the better the chances are of Cincinnati stealing one on the road and staying in the tournament discussions.

This entry was posted on Saturday, February 28th, 2009 at 6:43 pm by Brian G. . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.