Big game this weekend as Syracuse squares off against Northwestern.  The Orange are still looking for their first win in the Doug Marrone Era.  This week’s game marks the third and final game against a Big 10 opponent this season.

When: Saturday September 19th, 2009 – 7:00 PM Eastern

Where: Syracuse, New York in the Carrier Dome

Capacity: 49,262

Television: Time Warner

Tailgating information: TexanMarks Tailgate Guide

Northwestern Reading Material (via pacusefan): NWestern Reading Material

The Spread: NU – 3 The Over/Under is 47.

Rivalry info: This will be the ninth meeting between these schools.  The series is tied at 4-4.  The Wildcats won the last game between these two teams 30-10 in last year’s opener.  Syracuseis 674-474-49 all time. Northwestern is 470-614-44 all time.

Coaches: Northwestern – Pat Fitzgerald – 4th season at Northwestern (21-18 overall.) Syracuse- Doug Marrone – 1st season at Syracuse (0-2 overall.)

Syracuse Offense vs Northwestern Defense: If there were ever a time for the Orange running game to get on track – this week against Northwestern would be it. Combined – Eastern Michigan and Towson were able to average 3.8 yards per carry against a defensive line that seems to be struggling a bit after the loss of Big 10 AA John Gill. Preseason Playboy AA Corey Wooton was expected to shore a majority of the load on the DL but has yet this hit stride and only has one tackle on the season. Marrone has expressed his displeasure  with the play of his Offensive Line – but although still a tough task – the Orange could find it a bit easier to protect QB Paulus and open some holes this weekend for Carter. Obviously it’s pivotal the Orange run the ball effectively this week as it seems Paulus might not have the arm strength to help open up the field. Which brings up the question – how much more of Nassib are we going to see this weekend?

Last weekend was really the first time most of us saw Nassib line up under center and take a few snaps. Prior to that we had only seen him out on the field as a conductor of the Stallion offense. I know Nassib only threw a handful of passes, but he looked great doing so. Especially the ball he threw on a rope for 20 yards to Catalina who was in triple coverage.  Marrone has already snuffed out a QB controversy and says he still intends to stick with Paulus…which means odds are he will. It seems Paulus is definitely suited for a Rob Spence offense when running smooth – which lives off of short slants and screens in order to open up the run game. But as we saw in the 2nd Half against Minnesota – when the run game falters Paulus is unable carry the Orange Offense on his own. An experienced Wildcat secondary will be a tough feat for Mike Williams and the young core of receivers. If the Offensive Line can open a few holes for Carter and keep the Wildcat Defense honest – Paulus will be able to thrive on short 5-10 yard passes that will basically render the covering ability of the Wildcat secondary useless. I expect to see more of the Stallion offense to help do so – but if Northwestern is able to stuff the run then we might see a bit more Nassib to help open the field with his arm strength (or stronger then Greg’s – however you look at it.)

Northwestern Offense vs Syracuse Defense: The Northwestern Wildcats used their vaunted spread offense to dominate the game last season against Syracuse.  While they are still executing the spread again this season, they haven’t exactly been firing on all cylinders this year.  QB Mike Kafka, more than just a capable runner, has only 11 carries for 28 yards so far this season.  He is also averaging just around 8 yards per reception.  If the Wildcats are going to dominate, they will need one of their four headed hydras, I mean running backs, to step up and take over.  Stephen Simmons seems the most capable, rushing for 150 yards so far this season.  However Jacob Schmidt, Arby Fields, and Scot Concannon have also seen a far share of the running workload.  In the air, Andrew Brewer is the one to watch as he has 8 catches for 163 yards.  Brewer also has the only TD reception thus far for Northwestern.  They haven’t been successful throwing it around as only 8 players have caught passes compared to 10 for the Orange and no one is calling us a pass happy team.  I would expect the Wildcats to remove the training wheels from their offensive playcalling this week to try and keep Syracuse off balance.  Thus far their offensive line has also only given up one sack.  Keeping Kafka clean will be vital to establishing their playbook this week.

For Syracuse, there should be no surprises this week.  They have already faced two experienced Big 10 teams.  Kafka is the least accomplished of the 3 signal callers faced thus far.  The defense has performed above expectations to this point.  Derrell Smith and Doug Hogue seem to have solidified the LBer unit.  Ryan Gillum looks like he should be ready to go again but will only be used in reserve for freshman E.J. Carter.  The Orange will have to prevent giving up the big play.  Eric Decker and Evan Royster were able to burn the secondary for big plays in each of the last two games.  Keeping receivers in front of the secondary will be a big goal for the Orange.  I would expect to see the Cuse get another chance at extending their streak of 4th down stops.  I’m sure if the Orange is leading in the 4th Quarter of this game, they will likely be called on to stop the Wildcats for 4 downs.

Why Syracuse will win: The Orange finally establish a strong running game. In doing so Paulus is able to pick apart the Wildcat D who is caught cheating a few times trying to stop Carter and Mike Williams starts a new scoring streak. The Orange Defense continues to play strong. Shaffers attack is too much and Kafka is unable to respond after playing seemingly untouched so far this season.

Why Northwestern will win: Mike Kafka will continue to lead a balanced offense.  The ground game of Northwestern will allow the team to control time of possession.  Syracuse’s conservative attack will continue to struggle to produce points.  DE Corey Wootton will return to the status that made him into a preseason Playboy All American.  The Orange offensive cannot give Greg Paulus time to throw and the Orange fail to make key plays when they need it the most.

Syracuse player to watch: LB Derrell Smith. Smith seems to be coming into his own and had a career weekend against Penn State tallying 5 solo tackles, 5 assists, and 1 tackle for a loss. Smith leads the Orange on Defense with 16 tackles in two games this season.

Northwestern player to watch: S Brendon Smith.  You may remember Smith from last season.  His INT for TD against us last year broke upon a tight affair and gave the Wildcats enough breathing room to seal the opener.  Well, Smith is at it again so far for Northwestern.  He had a team leading 12 tackles last week against Eastern Michigan.  I’m sure it’s more than the NU staff wants, but it appears he is every bit the playmaker that Mike Holmes is for our unit.

LVO Prediction: First W for Marrone, but it won’t come easy.  Syracuse 20 Northwestern 17.

Reyes39 Prediction: Agree with LVO – pop the champagne Marrone. Syracuse 27 Northwestern 20

-Stats thanks to ncaa.org and cfbdatawarehouse.com