I regrettably fell prey to USF being a contending team, so I missed a straight up pick last week.  Still the record isn’t too shabby.  Let’s get right at this week’s slate.  Again, all lines used are provided here:

Last Week: 4-1    Year to date: 42-4

ATS: 3-2                Year to date: 20-13

Friday:

West Virginia at South Florida: Line WV -3;O/U 47.5.  The Bulls were starting to catch everyone’s fancy with their big win at Florida St.  Then the big boys of the conference started to roll in and the results aren’t pretty.  Cincy rushed for 189 yards and Pitt 214.  Now in comes Noel Devine.  With Jarrett Brown sluggish last week against UConn, Devine should see alot of carries.  USF needs to take advantage of a WV team that has started slow the last two weeks.  That means BJ Daniels will have to do more than 4-8 with two picks like he had versus Pitt.  The Pick:  The wheels are off USF, although the game will be close WV will win – 24-20.

Saturday:

Rutgers at Connecticut: Line:  UConn – 7.5;O/U 47.  UConn gets its first home game since the death of Jasper Howard.  They played with great heart and emotion last week at Morgantown.  I expect they’ll have alot of fire again this week.  Rutgers has continued to play less than stellar opponents ok, but has struggled against talent.  Why should this week be any different.  UConn is just the mentally tougher team right now.  UConn wins 30-17.

Cincinnati at Syracuse: Line UC -15;O/U 51.  Bearcats dropped in the BCS polls after hammering Louisville in the Keg O Nails.  The pollsters will likely be less impressed with a similar result against Syracuse.  Orange must run like they did last week against Akron to have any chance.  Pick was made in the preview.

Arkansas St at Louisville: Line UL -3;O/U 51.  Watershed game for the Cardinals.  Their defense was picked apart more than a pile of nachos last week against the Bearcats.  Could this game be Coach Kragthorpe’s Akron?  A loss would all but signal the end there.  Meanwhile Ark St can’t be overlooked as they battled Iowa tough before losinig by 3.  Their strengths are running the ball and if they can limit turnovers and penalties – two areas that have killed the team thus far, this game could get real interesting.  The Pick:  Because the Wolves haven’t won a road game yet this year, I think the Cards will do just enough to eke this one out.  30-23.

Read along with LvilleOrange and Reyes39 as we look into this weeks Halloween match up against the #7 Cincinnati Bearcats

When: Saturday October 31st, 2009 – 12:00 PM Eastern

Where: Syracuse, New York in the Carrier Dome

Capacity: 49,262

Television: ESPNU

Cincinnati Reading Material (via pacusefan): Cincinnati Reading Material

The Spread: Cincinnatti -14.5 – Over/Under is 51.0

Rivalry info: This will be the tenth meeting between these schools.  Cincinnati owns a 5-4 advantage in the series and has won the last four against the Orange.  Syracuse is 677-476-49 all time. Cincinnati is 484-470-37 all time.

Coaches: Cincinnati – Brian Kelly – 4th season at Cincinnati (29-6 overall.) Syracuse- Doug Marrone – 1st season at Syracuse (3-4 overall.)

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Syracuse is back in action after a bye week.  It will be real interesting to see how the team responds to a team that gave them a demoralizing beat down in last season’s home opener.  Read on as  LvilleOrange gets you up to speed on this week’s matchup.

When: Saturday October 24rd, 2009 – 3:30 PM Eastern

Where: Syracuse, New York in the Carrier Dome

Capacity: 49,262

Television: Time Warner

Tailgating information: TexanMarks Tailgate Guide

Akron Reading Material (via pacusefan): Akron reading Material

The Spread: Syracuse -10.5.

Rivalry info: This will be the second meeting between these schools.  Akron won last year’s game 42-283 triumph.  Syracuse is 676-476-49 all time. Akron is 483-470-37 all time.

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I kind of took a bye week on the blog the same as our football team did last week.  I still nailed the straight up picks and actually predicted the Pitt/Rutgers game score while pushing the UL/UConn game, although had I waited that was a likely win as the number moved in my favor.  Anyway on to this week’s games.  Again, all lines used are provided here:

Last Week: 4-0    Year to date: 38-3

ATS: 2-1   (and a push)              Year to date: 17-12

Friday:

Rutgers at Army: Line RU -10; O/U 39.5.  Rutgers again gets to lick its wounds against a marginal opponent.  Although to their credit, Army has played with a bunch of middling BCS teams (Duke and Vandy).  I expect Savage should be able to find Brown freely in the Cadet secondary.  The number seems low since Rutgers hasn’t played anyone of consequence except the top teams in the BE and we’ve seen how that turned out.  Take the Scarlet Knights 30-13.

Saturday:

South Florida at Pittsbugh:Line Pitt -6.5;O/U 48.5.  Best game on the Big East slate this week.  How does USF respond to its potential deflating loss to Cincy?  Pitt controlled the game at Rutgers last week but didn’t put the game away.  Dion Lewis is a machine, but can he rush against the Bulls?  I picked Pitt in the preseason as the conference champ because of favorable games like this at home.  Still something tells me that USF isn’t ready to wilt just yet.  I’m taking Daniels play making ability and good ol conservative Wanny ball to give USF the outright win.  24-20.

Connecticut at West Virginia: Line WV -7;O/U 54.  I’m not sure I would touch this game.  Heavy hearted UConn travels to Morgantown in the wake of Jasper Howard’s tragic death.  How do they respond?  They could look like world beaters for a half and just run out of gas or they could just be in a funk and not contend at all.  How would you know.  WV having Jarrett Brown available and the game at home should be enough to cover this one.  WV 30-20.

Akron at Syracuse: Line SU -10.5;O/U 47.5;  Bye week rested Orange  look for revenge against a Zip team that put out an APB for QB this week.  Walt Harris has a tough task getting the Zips a W.  The Orange should be ready to atone for last season’s GRob career killer.  Take the Orange going away 37-14.

Louisville at Cincinnati: Line UC -17;O/U 53.  Bobby Petrino rolled 70 points on the Bearcats not too long ago.  I’m sure the Cincy fans would love to return the favor.  The only thing that can keep this game close is who is under center for UC.  The Cards are banged up and their defense is a total sieve at this point.  The Keg O Nails is staying in the Queen City and Bearcats will be making a BCS statement this week.  UC wins 55-20.

Somehow my prediction post did not get published as I set up. Oh well.  Here is the slate.  Again, all lines used are provided here:

Last Week: 4-0    Year to date: 34-3

ATS: 1-1                 Year to date: 15-11

Thursday:

Cincinnati at USF: Line Cincy -1.5;O/U 49.5.  Cincy has biggest test of season versus aggressive USF defense.  If Bearcats win, the path sets up pretty nicely to finish off unbeaten.  Daniels will have to have a big night and can USF’s defense slow down the fast strikes of Cincy?  The Pick:  I’m solidly on the Cincy bandwagon.  Take the Bearcats 30-20.

(post script – Even with Pike sidelined, the Cincy offense continues to roll.  They deserve a shot against the elite of college football, not a BCS game with the ACC.)

Friday:

Pittsburgh at Rutgers: Line Pitt -5.5;O/U 45.5;  Pitt survived a tough game with UConn.  We are still waiting for Rutgers to get tested.  Bill Stull has done a nice job of leading the Panther offense.  It’s their defense that beyond the line play of Greg Romeus (7 sacks) that needs to step up.  I really have no idea how much Rutgers has improved playing those cupcakes.  Is Savage ready for Pitt?  The Pick:  Pitt scares me in covering the spread, but I’m going to back them to do it anyway.  Pitt 24-17.

Saturday:

Louisville at UConn: Line Uconn -13;O/U 45.5.  UConn needs to bounce back after tough Pitt loss.  Louisville got a win last week, although not well versus Southern Miss.  Cody Endres will likely find lots of time to throw, especially if UConn’s run game continues to fire.  Adam Froman has played the last two games at QB for the Ville, but hasn’t been very effective.  Card fans already pouncing on Jon Gruden rumors – really?  The Pick:  Huskies grind game out of Cardinals – 37-17.

Marshall at West Virginia: Line WV -21;O/U 51.5.  West Virginia really clicking on offense and cleaned up their turnovers last week against the Cuse.  Marshall has this game marked on their calendar as David looks to slay Goliath.  The only thing that will save the Herd is that WV should take their foot off the gas after revving to huge lead.  WV 42-14.

I don’t know about everyone else, but to me, this offseason has really crawled along. This strikes me as a little odd, because it’s not like there’s been a shortage of  news:

1. Jonny Flynn became the highest-drafted former Orange since Carmelo Anthony in 2003, going sixth overall to the Timberwolves.

2. Phenom Fab Melo fell in love with SU on his first official visit and gave a verbal, propelling SU’s 2010 recruiting class to second in the country. Read the rest of this entry »

Syracuse is on to game 4 of 6 straight at home. We hope the crowd attendance is better than last week. I know there were 41K announced but it looked more like 35K in the seats. Read along with Reyes39 and LvilleOrange for the skinny on this week’s game.

When: Saturday October 10th, 2009 – 12:00 PM Eastern

Where: Syracuse, New York in the Carrier Dome

Capacity: 49,262

Television: ESPN Regional – Time Warner 26

Tailgating information: TexanMarks Tailgate Guide

WV Reading Material: Via pacusefan

The Spread: West Virginia -10.

Rivalry info: This is one of Syracuse’s longtime rivals. The Orange lead the overall series 30-26. West Virginia has won the last 7 games including last season’s 17-6 win in Morgantown. Alltime: WV 676-447-45. Syracuse: 676-475-49 (Same number of alltime wins!)

Coaches: WV – Bill Stewart – 2nd season at WV (13-5 overall.) Syracuse- Doug Marrone – 1st season at Syracuse (2-3 overall.)

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Best week against the spread and I would have been perfect if not for a garbage time TD by Colorado at WV.  Again, all lines used are provided here:

Last Week: 4-0    Year to date: 30-3

ATS: 3-1                 Year to date: 14-10

Noon:

West Virginia at Syracuse: Line WV -10;O/U 55.5  If last week holds form for both teams we could be in for a real turnover fest.  WV’s lightning fast RB Noel Devine sets the pace along with QB Jarrett Brown who won’t have the shoulder woes that limited him in last years 17-6 game in Morgantown.  WV secondary will be tested by all world Mike Williams.  Prediction as always comes with the preview.

3:30

Texas Southern at Rutgers: No line.  Surprise, surprise Rutgers is back this week to take on another FCS opponent.  Texas Southern dropped their game against FBS rival Louisana Monroe to the tune of 58-0, so Rutgers should name their score in this one.  Rutgers 70-0.

Connecticut at Pittsburgh: Line Pitt -7.5;O/U 46.  Blue collar football should be on tap in the Steel City.  Whichever team can establish the run will probably win this one.  Pitt runs to the tune of 155 yards while UConn only yields 68 yds a game.  UConn has had a week to lick their wounds and have Scott Lutrus back at LB.  Pitt started slow on the road at Louisville last week before prevailing in the second half.   The line has moved 2 full points since the opening line.  I expect another tight game but Pitt should prevail 20-17.

7:30

Southern Miss at Louisville: No line.  Faltering Cardinals face a one-time CUSA rival in Southern Miss.  The Golden Eagles are going without the services of QB Austin Davis.  Martevious Young will handle the QB duties.  For the Cards, Steve Kragthorpe is hiding his intentions to start either Adam Froman, who got the call last week vs Pitt or Justin Burke who should be ready to go after injury to his sternum.  All the unknowns has prevented Vegas from setting a line.   The Cards can least afford to lose so I will go out on a limb and pick them this week – Cards 24-20.

A bit late with the post USF thoughts, traveling up to Cuse for the weekend and then getting the machinery cranked back up here took a bit more time than planned.

It was a great weekend overall as I got a chance to press the flesh with several CO board members, always good to do that!

Photo via LVO Sister!

I was a bit disappointed by the crowd, considering the opponent and it being alumni weekend and all.  I’ll spare the bloody details of all the turnovers and such as it has been dissected to death on the other SU sites.  I will say that we played them pretty well and the game plan was well thought out.    The execution and our weaknesses were large factors in the outcome of the game.

Since we are almost half way through the season, I have decided to do is re-evaluate my position primer from before the season and see where things stand as of today going forward.

So let’s take a look at the respective positions and re-rank where things stand as of today.   We will again go from most comfortable to not so comfortable.

1. Coaching staff – (Preseason rank #5) There was some doubt going in, mainly because our man DM had yet to actually coach a football game.  With that out of the way, I shoot him and the staff up to number one for a few reasons.  First and foremost the staff has shown an ability to game plan, witness the preparedness versus Penn St and what I thought was a nice plan against USF.  It seems we have left the era of the expected blowout losses.  All the coaches and opponents have mentioned that the team has changed from previous seasons.  We also have seen a no quit attitude in the team.  In years prior a 2 TD deficit would have led to a 4 TD deficit.  This year we have seen the team come back.  Credit the staff 100% here.  Pass me the kool-aid, but I label this a concern level zero out 10.

2. Running back.  (Preseason rank #1)  I slid the RB position down just one notch.  I contemplated dropping them lower based on the fact that we haven’t had a 100 yard rusher this year, but I find it hard to blame the players here.  Delone Carter has run with a purpose, often dragging players down the field with him.  Antwon Bailey has executed the Stallion runs nicely as well.  Mike Jones looks like he has a nice future here as well.  Does Averrin Collier change positions in the spring?  I like the personnel they just need some more holes to bust through.  Put my worry level to a 1 here.

3. Punting .  (Preseason (#2) Rob Long has done the usual Rob Long stuff.  I would still like to see him do a better job with the coffin corner kicking.  For that I dropped him one on the place on the worry rankings.  He either kills the punt or bricks it, as evidence in his 2 kicks for 53 yards versus USF.  I would like better consistency from him but overall I am not worried at all about the position.  Score it a 1+ on the worry meter.

4. QB.  (Preseason #6) Pleasantly surprised would be an understatement to describe the play of Greg Paulus.  His 5 INTs not withstanding last week.  GP has done more than what has been expected of him.  He is a leader, he has a nice pump fake and is progressing with his footwork and progressions.  I’d like to see him get rid of the ball quicker and it would be nice if he could find another reliable target to go with Mike Williams but he is making idiots out of unnamed BE coaches and Pat Forde (who is a douchewaffle after all).  Even Ryan Nassib has looked comfortable in the short time he has had to throw the ball.  I don’t think the QB spot is a liability at all.  Rate it a 2+ on the worry meter.

5. K.  (Preseason rank #10).  Wow, I would not believe if you told me that Ryan Lichtenstein would be 9-10 from FG including a game winner.  Tons and tons of doubt going in – I mean c’mon the dude didn’t even have a scholly when camp opened.  Kudos to Ryan for making the most out of his opportunity.  Give this a 3 on the worry meter.

The bigger concerns come after the jump…

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Syracuse opens Big East play with an energized South Florida team coming off a huge program win versus in state rival Florida St.  Homecoming weekend should mean another big crowd on hand. Read on as Reyes39 and LvilleOrange get you up to speed on this week’s matchup.

When: Saturday October 3rd, 2009 – 12:00 PM Eastern

Where: Syracuse, New York in the Carrier Dome

Capacity: 49,262

Television: Time Warner Sports

Tailgating information: TexanMarks Tailgate Guide

USF Reading Material: Via pacusefan

The Spread: Opened at South Florida -7.0 but has dropped a half point to South Florida -6.5. The Over/Under is at 46.0

Rivalry info: This will be the fifth meeting between these schools.  USF has won every one of them including last years 45-13 triumph.  Syracuse is 676-474-49 all time. USF is 91-52-0 all time.

Coaches: USF – Jim Leavitt – 13th season at USF (91-52 overall.) Syracuse- Doug Marrone – 1st season at Syracuse (2-2 overall.)

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