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Week 5: Syracuse Orange vs South Florida Bulls
Syracuse opens Big East play with an energized South Florida team coming off a huge program win versus in state rival 
Florida St. Homecoming weekend should mean another big crowd on hand. Read on as Reyes39 and LvilleOrange get you up to speed on this week’s matchup.
When: Saturday October 3rd, 2009 – 12:00 PM Eastern
Where: Syracuse, New York in the Carrier Dome
Capacity: 49,262
Television: Time Warner Sports
Tailgating information: TexanMarks Tailgate Guide
USF Reading Material: Via pacusefan
The Spread: Opened at South Florida -7.0 but has dropped a half point to South Florida -6.5. The Over/Under is at 46.0
Rivalry info: This will be the fifth meeting between these schools. USF has won every one of them including last years 45-13 triumph. Syracuse is 676-474-49 all time. USF is 91-52-0 all time.
Coaches: USF – Jim Leavitt – 13th season at USF (91-52 overall.) Syracuse- Doug Marrone – 1st season at Syracuse (2-2 overall.)
Syracuse Offense vs USF Defense: This Saturdays contest against the Bulls will easily be the Orange Offenses toughest task yet. The Bull defense ranks in the top 20 nationally in – Total Defense (11th) Scoring Defense (2nd) Pass Defense (5th) Sacks (T-17th) and Passing Efficiency Defense (12th.) The Bulls have played a pretty weak schedule but they didn’t look to skip a beat against a top 50 offensive opponent in Florida State – limiting them to a single touchdown and forcing 4 turnovers.
The Bull Defensive Line is one of the best in the nation and should give an already weak Orange Offensive Line fits. The Orange have yet to produce a 100 yard rusher on the season and the odds are it won’t happen this weekend either. The strength of the Bulls Defensive Line is on the Ends – where All-American DE George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul (3 TFL’s last week) line up. I expect to see Owen/Provo/Catalina asked quite a bit to help seal off the outsides – especially on Selvies side. Our best bet is to keep Carter lateral and hit the A gaps. He’s strong enough to churn out 3-4 a carry and could possibly break a few.
The Orange’s best chance to beat the Bull offense will be with what Rob Spence loves to do. Screens, Slants, and Hooks. The Bull defense loves to attack – and they’d be smart to try and get to Paulus early and often and try to rattle him. The best way to fight that is to get the ball out of his hands and to our playmakers as quick as possible (ehem, Williams.) The Bull secondary has been stout thus far – but not as strong as years past when they had the likes of Williams and Jenkins manning the corners (NFL.) If Paulus can make the proper reads and the Bulls bring the house – he should be able to catch the Bulls with their pants down while he has Mike or another receiver on a short slant or screen with a man or two to beat.
USF Offense vs Syracuse Defense: There is a new skipper running the Bulls offense from when we last looked at this team. All time Big East yardage leader Matt Grothe went down with a torn ACL. He has turned command of the offense over to redshirt freshman BJ Daniels. Daniels is now the team’s leading rusher and has helped guide the Bulls to the top of the heap in the BE in rushing at over 207 yards per game. All of this rushing behind what was a patchwork offensive line when the preseason training camp began. Daniels has followed Grothe’s lead when it comes to scrambling and executing the quarterback draw. Containing Daniels’ running will be a major focus in the Syracuse defensive gameplan this week. The Bulls also have Moise Plancher who has 4 rushing TDs so far this season. Daniels is a little less polished throwing the ball. He has completed just 55% of his passes so far. The Bulls have a stable of capable receivers as 15 different receivers have caught passes and this is not counting Jesse Hester who hasn’t played this season with ankle issues. Carlton Mitchell leads all receivers this year with 15 catches for 238 yards and a score. Also look for Dontavia Bogan, AJ Love, Theo Wilson and true frosh Sterling Griffin. Each has over 100 yards receiving. If there is a concern offensively its in the field goal department. Eric Schwartz is now handling the FGs and he was just 1-3 last week.
For Syracuse the matchup will hinge on how well the Orange’s run defense holds up against South Florida. SU has held 3 of the 4 teams they’ve faced to under 100 yards. Art Jones will not only have to play but be a factor in clogging up the middle. The Orange pass defense is the most giving in the BE at over 310 yards per game. I know that the defense has been more aggressive in Scott Shafer’s schemes, but it is interesting to note that a ball control team like Maine scrapped their entire offensive philosophy and then was able to carve the Orange up for 340 yards in the air. Kevyn and Nico Scott are going to need some help containing all of the weapons that USF has used. The D is on pace to yield a school record 33 TDs, which is 6 more than last season’s record. Mike Holmes and Max Suter will likely get help from Shamarko Thomas in nickel packages. I also anticipate Derrell Smith, the Orange’s leading tackler, will have to act as a spy in order to contain BJ Daniels and make him beat the Orange via the air.
Why Syracuse will win: The Bulls are still patting themselves on the back for beating the Seminoles. They take the field just like the Orange did against Maine…at 50%. B.J. Daniels again shows promise but still goes through some growing pains – reminding Bull fans that Grothe’s injury was a big time loss.
Why USF will win: There is no hangover from last week’s historic victory. George Selvie, Jason Pierre-Paul and Company continue to devour opposing OLines. Daniels and the Bulls get some easy early scores and force the Orange to play catchup. The Bulls don’t need to sweat out their FG kicking.
Syracuse player to watch: Basically plays right into the USF player(s) to watch. The entire Offensive Line. If they don’t have a career game – points will be scarce for the Orange.
USF player to watch: George Selvie. Might as well make that the entire defensive line for the Bulls. How they play will largely determine how this game will go. If they come out inspired and dominate the line of scrimmage, they could easily neutralize the Orange’s offense. If they have a let down, the Orange could have success testing a young USF secondary.
Reyes39 Prediction: Alright – I’m calling it. Orange get a win for the Homecoming crowd. ‘Cuse 24 – USF 21
LVO Prediction: Should be an incredible game. I am concerned about Art’s health and our ability to stop a mobile passer. USF 30-20.
